Oh no, here we go again: Atlantic hurricane season

A hurricane-driven storm surge could destroy over 460,000

With major storms hitting the Sunshine State the last two years, a new report shows that more Floridians are prepared for the 2018 hurricane season which starts on Friday.

There is a 70% chance there will be 10 to 16 named storms that threaten life and property in 2018, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of those, seven are expected to be hurricanes, three of them Category 3 or greater.

The expectation among state economic observers is that consumers might be more eager this year than in past seasons to stock supplies early, after active storm seasons that yielded destructive Hurricane Matthew in October 2016 and Hurricane Irma in September 2017.

There are nearly 7 million coastal homes facing more than $1.6 trillion in potential storm-surge reconstruction expenses this year, representing a 6.6% cost increase from last year's hurricane season.

The NOAA describe an average hurricane season as producing "12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes".

A new report from real-estate data provider CoreLogic has shown that almost 7 million homes are at risk of storm surges in the USA this coming hurricane season.

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Florida residents should hope for El Nino conditions towards the end of summer, seeing as that is the most active time for hurricane development.

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers have decreased their forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season to have approximately average activity. The Virginia Department of Emergency Management launched the "Know Your Zone" program in spring 2017 to streamline evacuation efforts in the event of a powerful hurricane passing over Hampton Roads. It's also important to remember that there is no apparent correlation between the number of named storms and their intensity. It covers the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. But heading into a new storm season, the state has enacted only a few changes - the largest aimed at protecting seniors in nursing homes.

Dilley also believes this part of Florida is in for above normal rainfall for another 15 years or so, like the rainy period in the 1940s.

"If you're a law of averages type of person", Pfaff said, "we're due for a big one".

Other high-pressure systems can also help steer tropical systems, as can storm fronts crossing from north to south across the United States. This means a slightly higher chance of an East Coast landfall. If the Bermuda-Azores High is farther east in the Atlantic, storms tend to head toward the US coast and then curve north out to sea.

"One of the lessons we learned from Irma, preparedness works", said Lee Mayfield, Acting Director for the Department of Public Safety in Lee County.

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